There can be little doubt that March 2020 will go down in history. I fear that April 2020 will bring more pain and suffering across this little planet of ours. I have, like I am sure you have also, looked on in horror as events unfolded over the past weeks and felt emotions I never thought possible as I fear for family, friends and communities. We have to hope that medical science will come to assist us with treatments to take some of edge off this insidious pandemic until we can mass produce and distribute a vaccine for COVID19.
Until recent days, I have not had the stomach to sit down and try to read up on how this nightmare may end. The data, both medical and economical, that will come out in April will likely shock but will hopefully at least help us to figure a route out of this. Right now, I doubt we will ever go back to the world we lived in just a short few weeks ago. The price that will have to be paid for this human tragedy once the virus is conquered will, I fear, include destroyed businesses, unemployment, financial hardship for many and a debt crisis (both corporate & sovereign). If things get really bad, I would fear for social cohesion in the months and years ahead in many communities and countries. So, in trying to start to figure out where we go to now, the exhibits below are those I have taken from some recent reports (as credited) that I thought worth sharing.
Notwithstanding these fears, I do think it’s important to have hope and there are many things happening during this crisis that point to hope. Families getting stronger through adversity and a focus on what is important for us all are just two positives. We’ll see what the coming weeks bring….
Stay Safe.
This blog represents my personal views and is not reflective of the views or opinions held by any company or employer I work for currently or have worked for in the past. The views expressed herein are based solely upon publicly available data. No views expressed herein should be taken as an endorsement to take any particular course of action in the markets. The basis of this blog is that different views should be expressed and readers make up their own minds on the what they believe and act accordingly.
deconstructingrisk 
I put my thoughts below in ROT13. If you are sure you want to read them just go to https://rot13.com/ to decrypt it.
Stay safe!
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Hi Eddie, hope all is ok with you. Agree on on-off strategy. I follow stats in FT on deaths per pop (just once a day !!) and the UK is tracking Italy, the US looks scary with that moron in charge (he does give me a daily laugh which is something). We’ll see what happens with the economies, I fear it wouldn’t be good (I will buy back into blue chip stocks when S&P500 goes around 2,000), but as you say its all about health. Not looking forward to April!!! Great to hear from you. Stay Safe. M
We are fine, thanks. Surprising how fast a significant part of your work force can work from home when it was a no-no just a couple of months ago…
The UK is somewhat behind the curve, I’m afraid, and the US… well… I wouldn’t want to live there right now. Funny enough that the WSJ proposes to learn from Germany of all countries, namely paying people for staying at home (working part-time basically), to keep the economic machine humming.
Watch out with the S&P at 2,000… this esteemed gentleman forsees a significantly lower fair value of around 1,200 based on historical data:
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200225/
Depends on your choices, of course. Some companies are ahead of the curve like energy or real estate, some are behind like tech. So I guess there will be a nice opportunity set all the time, just with slightly different composition.
All the best,
Eddie