Tag Archives: Deutsche Bank

An Apple Appetite

Recently I have been trying to dig deeper into Apple (AAPL) to get a handle on what the near term may mean for this amazing company and thereby get an insight into APPL’s valuation. I have struggled with AAPL’s valuation in previous posts (here and here) but after each of my musings the share price continued on its upward trajectory.

Irrespective of whether iPhone 8 and iPhone X unit sales disappoint (due to unit shortages or otherwise) over the coming months, it seems highly probable to me that Apple will be successful in segmenting their iPhone market further over the medium term and break through the $1000 per iPhone spend in a significant way. Their R&D spend of over $10 billion (including nearly $2 billion of share options) goes a long way to ensuring customers will pay for their innovations.

The reason why AAPL are following the current strategy is a hot topic of debate with analysts. Some see the new iPhone models feed into a super-cycle of updates and continued installed base growth, pointing to the approximate 40% of the current iPhone installed base older than 2 years. Other analysts believe that the smartphone market has plateaued (see graph from Mary Meeker below) and Apple is embarking upon a segmentation strategy to harvest their loyal customer base.

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The estimates for the iPhone installed base vary significantly across analysts from 550 to 750 million units and some, such as Deutsche Bank and BoA ML further, break the base down to core and secondary non-core users. Although most of the estimates are likely out of date as they were published prior to the iPhone 8 and iPhone X announcements, the graphic below illustrates the differing views.

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It is likely no surprise that I am in the plateau camp on future growth of the installed base. I have assumed an installed base of 640 million as at end September 2017 and 40% or approximately 250 million of these are potential iPhones upgraders with phones older than 2 years. I have further assumed that a proportion of the installed base, I selected 10%, are secondary non-core users with a very low propensity to upgrade. That leaves an approximate 190 million potential upgrades for the FY2018. Despite the lack of growth of the market, I assumed another 10 million sales from new purchasers giving a target iPhone unit sales of 200 million for FY2018. 200 million of annual unit iPhone sales is well below most analyst estimates which average around 240 -260 million for FY2018.

Of the 200 million iPhone unit sales for FY2018, I have further assumed 45 million are iPhone X and just over half are iPhone 8, with the remainder being iPhone 7 and older models. For Q42017, I am assuming only 9 million iPhone 8 sales with 35 million of iPhone 7 and older models (influenced by the amount of inventory clearance sales I have seen in retail stores). The graph below shows my installed base assumptions, with my estimates for sales of the iPhone 8, iPhone X and it successor models over FY 2018 and FY2019 (I am assuming 200 million units is the new normal for annual iPhone sales through to FY2020).

click to enlargeAAPL iPhone Installed Base 2014 to 2019

The resulting average selling price (ASP) for FY2018 is $785 with annual FY2018 revenues from iPhone of $157 billion. For FY2019, I have assumed a ASP of $860 with annual FY2019 iPhone revenues of $172 billion. The graph below shows my revenue assumptions over FY 2018 and FY2019 across all products.

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The EPS estimates coming out of my model, using the assumptions above (amongst others), for FY2018, FY2019 and FY2020 are $10.17, $11.45 and $11.81 respectively (I agree with the estimates of $9.00 for FY2017). That represents 13% EPS growth for 2018 and 2019, slowing to 3% in 2020. At the current share price of $160, the forward PE (excluding cash) would look as per the graph below.

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My analysis suggests that AAPL either deserves a higher multiple than the recent past to justify its current value or it will have to convince enough new iPhone users to buy its new products to take market share from its competitors and sell more than 200 million iPhone annually for the foreseeable future.

Given the potential headwinds for iPhone 8 and iPhone X over the short term, the current price may be difficult to defend near term as the market gets used to lower iPhone sales at higher prices (and hopefully margins too). Then again, going negative on AAPL hasn’t proven fruitful in the past and the analysts are currently hyping up AAPL’s prospects with price targets heading solidly towards $200.

Given my previous history of questioning AAPL’s valuation, maybe indecision is the best answer for the time being……

Crimping CDS

The post-crisis CDS market has undergone significant regulatory change including a substantial regulatory overhaul due to the Volcker Rule, requirements from reporting to central clearing under the Dodd–Frank Act and the European Markets Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR), and Basel III capital and liquidity regulations. Measuring the size of the market consistently is notorious difficult given different accounting treatments, netting protocols, collateral requirements, and legal enforceability standards. Many organisations have been publishing data on the market (my source is the BIS for this post) but consistency has been an issue. Although a deeply flawed metric (due to some of the reasons just highlighted and then some), the graph below on the nominal size of the CDS market (which updates this post) illustrates the point on recent trends.

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The gross market value (defined by BIS as the sum of the absolute values of all open contracts with either positive or negative replacement values) and the net market value (which includes counterparty netting) are better metrics and indicate the real CDS exposure is a small fraction of the nominal market size, as per the graph below.

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Critics of the regulatory impact on the liquidity of the CDS market argue that these instruments are a vital tool in the credit markets for hedging positions, allowing investors to efficiently express investment positions and facilitating price discovery. A major issue for liquidity in the market is the capital constraints imposed by regulators which impedes the ability of financial institutions to engage in market-making. The withdrawal of Deutsche Bank from the CDS market was seen as a major blow despite some asset managers and hedge funds stepping up to the mark.

The impact of rising interest rates in the coming years on the credit markets will likely have some interesting, and potentially unforeseen, consequences. With a plethora of Goldman Sachs alumni currently working on Trump’s “very major hair cut on Dodd-Frank”, amongst other regulations, it will be interesting to see if any amendments lead to a shot in the arm for the CDS market. Jamie Dimon, in his most recent shareholder letter, calls for an approach by Trumps’ lieutenants “to open up the rulebook in the light of day and rework the rules and regulations that don’t work well or are unnecessary”.

One Direction

Goldman Sachs says “we have more potential for shocks right now”. Deutsche Bank and Bank of America Merrill Lynch predict a pick-up in volatility to hit equities. The ever positive Albert Edwards of Socgen points to a recent IMF report on debt and trashes the Fed with the quip “these dudes will never identify an asset bubble at least before the event!

In the IMF report referenced above, and other reports published by the IMF this month, there is some interesting analysis and a sample of the accompanying graphs are reproduced below.

All of these graphs show trends going inexorably in one direction. Add in dollops of (not unrelated) political risk particularly in the UK and across Europe, and that direction looks like trouble ahead.

click to enlargeimf-gross-global-debt-as-of-gdp

click to enlargeimf-private-debt-during-deleveraging-periods

click to enlargeimf-decomposition-of-equity-valuations-october-2016

click to enlargeimf-global-real-rates

click to enlargeimf-report-sovereign-bond-yields-and-term-premiums

click to enlargeimf-report-banking-sector

click to enlargeimf-report-pension-deficits

EBA Bank Stress Tests

The results of the EBA stress tests on the largest European banks were released on Friday night. As expected, the Italian bank Monte Paschi performed badly. Rather than go into the results at a individual bank level, I thought it would be interesting to look at the results at a country level.

The first graph below shows the movement in the common equity tier 1 ratios under the adverse scenario by country.

click to enlarge2016 EBA Stress Test Common Equity Tier 1 Ratios by country

The next graph below shows the movement in the leverage ratios under the adverse scenario by country.

click to enlarge2016 EBA Stress Test Leverage Ratios by country

On the CET1 ratios, Ireland and Austria join Italy as the countries with the lowest aggregate ratios. The fall in Ireland’s ratios is particularly noticeable. In terms of the leverage ratios, Italy and Austria again appear in the bottom of the list. Perhaps surprisingly, the Netherlands is the lowest with Germany and France around 4%.

Another interesting piece of data from the EBA is the profile of sovereign exposures in the EU banks. In the exhibit below, I looked at these exposures to see if there is any insight that could be gained on risks from any potential breakup of the Euro (not a risk that’s talked about much these days but one that hasn’t gone away in my view).

click to enlargeGross Sovereign Exposures in EU Banks

A few things come to mind from this exhibit. Germany bonds are not held in as high quantities as I would of expected (except for the weird 46% from Finland, with other concentrations in Denmark, Italy and the Netherlands), likely to be a function of their yield. The strongest capitalized countries – Denmark, Finland and Sweden – have the lowest holding in their own bonds, with Denmark and Sweden having a particularly diverse spread of holdings. Italian bonds are widely held across a number of countries but not in large concentrations. Ireland holds most of the Irish exposure.

There is likely more food for thought  among the interesting data released by the EBA from these bank stress tests.

 

Patience on earnings

With the S&P500 up 100 points since last week’s low of 1882, the worry about global growth and earnings has been given a breather in the last few days trading. Last weeks low was about 12% below the May high (today’s close is at -8.6%). Last week, the vampire squid themselves lowered their S&P500 EPS forecast for 2015 and 2016 to $109 and $120 respectively, or approximately 18.2 and 16.6 times today’s close with the snappy by-line that “flats the new up”.

The forward PE, according this FACTSET report, as at last Thursday’s close (1924) was at 15.1, down from 16.8 in early May (as per this post).

click to enlargeForward 12 month PE S&P500 October2015

Year on year revenue growth for the S&P500 is still hard to find with Q3 expected to mark the third quarter in a row of declines, with energy and materials being a particular drag. Interestingly, telecom is a bright spot with at over 5% revenue growth and 10% earnings growth (both excluding AT&T).

Yardeni’s October report also shows the downward estimates of earnings and profit margins, as per below.

click to enlargeS&P500 EPS Profit Margin 2015 estimates

As usual, opinion is split on where the market goes next. SocGen contend that “US profits growth has never been this weak outside of a recession“. David Bianco of Deutsche Bank believes “earnings season is going to be very sobering“. While on the other side Citi strategist Tobias Levkovich opined that there is “a 96 percent probability the markets are up a year from now“.

Q3 earnings and company’s forecasts are critical to determining the future direction of the S&P500, alongside macro trends, the Fed and the politics behind the debt ceiling. Whilst we wait, this volatility presents an opportune time to look over your portfolio and run the ruler over some ideas.