Although it’s almost 3 years since the Brexit vote in the UK, in many ways it seems like an age, another era. Notwithstanding the fact that the European election in the UK is a poor match to the Brexit referendum in voter turn-out terms, high 30’s compared to over 70% respectively, both polls were singularly about one issue. Nearly 3 years ago, I attempted to estimate the split of the leave and remain votes by political party allegiance (see this post), as reproduced below.
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A similar split for the European election, with an assumption about the leave:remain split of the main Conservative and Labour parties (both of whom polled very poorly in the election), shows that the majority is likely now in favour of remain but by not much more than the leave majority in the Brexit vote.
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There is no doubt that the Brexit issue has changed British politics, likely for a generation. Whether the Brexit party, led by the little Englander Nigel Farage, will be anything other than a one issue party has yet to be seen. The tragedy is that the country looks as split as ever on the issue, the resolution of which is going to result in an embittered minority which could poison British politics for many years to come.
This blog represents my personal views and is not reflective of the views or opinions held by any company or employer I work for currently or have worked for in the past. The views expressed herein are based solely upon publicly available data. No views expressed herein should be taken as an endorsement to take any particular course of action in the markets. The basis of this blog is that different views should be expressed and readers make up their own minds on the what they believe and act accordingly.
deconstructingrisk 