Well, I have to put my hands up on this one, my timing couldn’t have been worse with TRIB off about 20% since this post. Reading it back, you can see that I knew I was going against my instincts and it shows the result of indiscipline on my part.
The analysts all revised their estimates in early September to take account of delays in product take-up – revenue and EPS are estimated at a tad over $27M and 0.19 respectively for Q3. Although my estimates agree on EPS, I think revenue could miss & come in below $26.5M. Add in the uncertainty on the impact of Ebola on African revenues (approx. 12% of total revenues are from Africa in HIV segment), the push out to H2 2015 for the target commercial launch of the cardiac troponin test (assuming FDA approval), the continued selling by the shareholder(s) who has been selling down through the 20’s and beyond.
All in all, this is one to own up to as a badly timed call. My risk management allowed me to only establish a small position so it’s not a disaster and I’m not beating myself up (too much!!). Ironically, TRIB is trading now around where the level my original post targeted. However, I don’t have the conviction to follow this one down. I’ll see what is said at the earnings call next week before I decide what to do but I’m not positive short term in today’s market (which I welcome as a dose of reality is needed).
Longer term TRIB may still be interesting as the main points of my assessment still hold. But as Yra Harris said “if you’re right at the wrong time, you’re wrong“. Well, hands up, I was wrong on TRIB.