There is a sense of déjà vu when you read about the competing plans of Greg Wyler’s OneWeb and Elon Musk’s SpaceX to build a network of low earth orbit satellites to provide cheap broadband across the globe over the next few years. Memories of past failures from the late 1990s telecom bubble come to mind with these network plans. Names like Iridium, GlobalStar, Teledesic, and SkyBridge. Maybe, this time, the dreamers with access to billions can get it right!
You never know, there may even be a comeback for broadband over power-lines (not likely according to this article)!
I did come across the latest figures from Cisco in their “ The Zettabyte Era – Trends and Analysis” piece, as previously referenced in this post. As a reminder, gigabyte/terabyte/petabyte/exabyte/zettabyte/yottabyte is a kilobyte to the power of 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 respectively. Cisco continues to predict a tripling of global IP traffic from 2014 to 2019. The graphics below give some colour on the detail behind the predictions.
Split by consumer and business traffic with each further split by traffic type. Unsurprisingly consumer video traffic is dominating the consumer 24% CAGR.
Growth in the US, Asia and Europe is driving the impressive 29% metro CAGR whilst Asia Pacific traffic is the prime driver for long-haul growth.
The split by region shows the status quo will be maintained in terms of traffic breakdown with Central/Eastern Europe and the Middle East /Africa regions projected to have growth rates of 30%+ and 40%+ respectively as opposed to approx 20% in the main markets.
Exabytes are reaching their zenith and by next year global IP traffic is predicted to exceed a zettabyte.