A thoroughly modern intellect

In only the way he could, one of Oscar Wilde’s quips highlights the futility in trying to look at future risks when he said “to expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect“.

In a recent article from Lucy Marcus called “Preparing for the unknown unknowns”, the author stated the following:

“Moreover, for all the risks that we can and do plan for, it is those for which we cannot prepare that can do the most damage. That is why, alongside all of the identifying, quantifying, and mitigating, we must also embrace the idea that not all change can be clearly foreseen and planned for.”

Notwithstanding the wisdom of these words, it is always interesting to see the results of the Global Risks report published each year by the World Economic Forum prior to the annual Davos meeting. The 2015 report is based upon the results of a survey from nearly 900 experts and the graphs below show the resulting likelihood and potential impact of 28 global risks and the interconnections between these risks.

click to enlargeGlobal Risks 2015

click to enlargeGlobal Risks 2015 Interconnections

Perhaps the most interesting part of the report is the schematic, reproduced below, showing how the top 5 risks in terms of impact and in terms of likelihood have changed from 2007 through to this year’s report.

click to enlargeGlobal Risks 2007 to 2015

The changing colours across the years illustrate now fickle and influenced by recent experiences our concerns for the future can be and just how thoroughly modern our intellect is.

Given the name of this blog, I of course include myself in the previous sentence also.

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