Befuddled Lloyd’s

Lloyd’s of London always provides a fascinating insight into the London insurance market and beyond into the global specialty insurance market, as this previous post shows. It’s Chairman, Bruce Carnegie-Brown, commented in their 2017 annual report that he expects “2018 to be another challenging year for Lloyd’s and the Corporation continues to refine its strategy to address evolving market conditions”. Given the bulking up of many of its competitors through M&A, Willis recently called it a reinvigoration of the “big balance sheet” reinsurance model, Lloyd’s needs to get busy sharpening its competitive edge. In a blunter message Brown stressed that “the market’s 2017 results are proof, if any were needed, that business as usual is not sustainable”.

A looked at the past 15 years of underwriting results gives an indicator of current market trends since the underwriting quality control unit, called the Franchise Board, was introduced at the end of 2002 after the disastrous 1990’s for the 330-year-old institution.

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The trend of increasing non-CAT loss ratios after years of soft pricing coupled with declining prior year reserve releases is clear to see. That increases the pressure on the insurance sector to control expenses. To that end, Inga Beale, Lloyd’s CEO, is pushing modernisation via the London Market Target Operating Model programme hard, stating that electronic placement will be mandated, on a phased basis, “to speed up the adoption of the market’s modernisation programme, which will digitise processes, reduce unsustainable expense ratios, and make Lloyd’s more attractive to do business with”.

The need to reduce expenses in Lloyd’s is acute given its expense ratio is around 40% compared to around 30% for most of its competitors. Management at Lloyd’s promised to “make it cheaper and easier to write business at Lloyd’s, enabling profitable growth”. Although Lloyd’s has doubled its gross premium volumes over the past 15 years, the results over varying timeframes below, particularly the reducing underwriting margins, show the importance of stressing profitable growth and expense efficiencies for the future.

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A peer comparison of Lloyd’s results over the past 15 years illustrates further the need for the market to modernise, as below. Although the 2017 combined ratio for some of the peer groupings have yet to finalised and published (I will update the graph when they do so), the comparison indicates that Lloyd’s has been doing worse than its reinsurance and Bermudian peers in recent years. It is suspicious to see, along with the big reinsurers and Bermudians, Lloyd’s included Allianz, CNA, and Zurich (and excluded Mapfe) in their competitor group from 2017. If you can’t meet your target, just change the metric behind the target!

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A recent report from Aon Benfield shows the breakdown of the combined ratio for their peer portfolio of specialist insurers and reinsurers from 2006 to 2017, as below.

click to enlargeAon Benfield Aggregate Combined Ratio 2006 to 2017

So, besides strong competitors, increasing loss ratios and heavy expense loads, what does Lloyd’s have to worry about? Well, in common with many, Lloyd’s must contend with structural changes across the industry as a result of, in what Willis calls in their latest report, “the oversupply of capital” from investors in insurance linked securities (ILS) with a lower cost of capital, whereby the 2017 insured losses appears to have had “no impact upon appetite”, according to Willis.

I have posted many times, most recently here, on the impact ILS has had on property catastrophe pricing. The graph of the average multiple of coupon to expected loss on deals monitored by sector expert Artemis again illustrates the pricing trend. I have come up with another angle to tell the story, as per the graph below. I compared the Guy Carpenter rate on line (ROL) index for each year against an index of the annual change in the rolling 10-year average global catastrophe insured loss (which now stands at $66 billion for 2008-2017). Although it is somewhat unfair to compare a relative measure (the GC ROL index) against an absolute measure (change in average insured loss), it makes a point about the downward trend in property catastrophe reinsurance pricing in recent years, particularly when compared to the trend in catastrophic losses. To add potentially to the unfairness, I also included the rising volumes in the ILS sector, in an unsubtle finger point.

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Hilary Weaver, Lloyd’s CRO, recognises the danger and recently commented that “the new UK ILS regulation will, if anything, increase the already abundant supply of insurance capital” and “this is likely to mean that prices remain low for many risks, so we need to remain vigilant to ensure that the prices charged for them are proportionate to the risk”.

The impact extends beyond soft pricing and could impact Lloyd’s risk profile. The loss of high margin (albeit not as high as it once was) and low frequency/high severity business means that Lloyd’s will have to fish in an already crowded pond for less profitable and less volatile business. The combined ratios of Lloyd’s main business lines are shown below illustrating that all, except casualty, have had a rough 2017 amid competitive pressures and large losses.

As reinsurance business is commoditised further by ILS, in a prelude to an increase in machine/algorithm underwriting, Lloyd’s business will become less volatile and as a result less profitable. To illustrate, the lower graph below shows Lloyd’s historical weighted average combined ratio, using the 2017 business mix, versus the weighted average combined ratio excluding the reinsurance line. For 2003 to 2017, the result would be an increase in average combined ratio, from 95.8% to 96.5%, and a reduction in volatility, the standard deviation from 9.7% to 7%.

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To write off Lloyd’s however would be a big mistake. In my view, there remains an important role for a specialist marketplace for heterogeneous risks, where diverse underwriting expertise cannot be easily replicated by machines. Lloyd’s has shown its ability in the past to evolve and adapt, unfortunately however usually when it doesn’t have any choice. Hopefully, this legendary 330-year-old institution will get ahead of the game and dictate its own future. It will be interesting to watch.

 

Epilogue – Although this analogy has limitations, it occurs to me that the insurance sector is at a stage of evolution that the betting sector was at about a decade ago (my latest post on the sector is here). Traditional insurers, with over-sized expenses, operate like old traditional betting shops with paper slips and manual operations. The onset of online betting fundamentally changed the way business is transacted and, as a result, the structure of the industry. The upcoming digitalisation of the traditional insurance business will radically change the cost structure of the industry. Lloyd’s should look to the example of Betfair (see an old post on Betfair for more) as a means of digitalising the market platform and radically reducing costs.

Follow-on 28th April – Many thanks to Adam at InsuranceLinked for re-posting this post. A big welcome to new readers, I hope you will stick around and check out some other posts from this blog. I just came across this report from Oliver Wyam on the underwriter of the future that’s worth a read. They state that the “commercial and wholesale insurance marketplaces are undergoing radical change” and they “expect that today’s low-price environment will continue for the foreseeable future, continuing to put major pressure on cost“.

Dastardly Data Breaches

Like many people, I am concerned about security and privacy online but, until now, I have been too lazy in regularly changing and varying passwords or in using tools such as two-step or two-factor verification. Then I came across this article which contained this paragraph:

How might a digital EPA function? Well, it could do some of the work that individuals do today. For example, the website of Australian security expert Troy Hunt, haveibeenpwned.com (“pwned” is how elite, or “l33t,” hackers, or “hax0rs,” spell “owned”), keeps track of nearly 5 billion hacked accounts. You give it your email, and it tells you if you’ve been found in a data breach. A federal agency could and should do that work, not just one very smart Australian—and it could do even better, because it would have a framework for legally exploring, copying, and dealing with illegally obtained information.

The haveibeenpwned website allows you to check if your email has been subjected to a data breach. As far as I can assess, the website is legit (it passed by antivirus and nothing suspicious came on a Mr Google search about the website or Troy Hunt) though I cannot verify that as a fact.

Below are the number of data breach incidents from hacking by year the incidents were made public, as publicly disclosed and monitored by Privacy Rights Clearinghouse. 2016 includes high profile incidents like Yahoo and LinkedIn. Obviously, there is likely to be many many more incidents which haven’t been found out or publicly disclosed.

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Oh, and by the way, it looks like two-step or two-factor verification is deeply flawed also, as per this article. Nonetheless, I am told it’s better to have it than not.

Artificial Insurance

The digital transformation of existing business models is a theme of our age. Robotic process automation (RPA) is one of the many acronyms to have found its way into the terminology of businesses today. I highlighted the potential for telecoms to digitalise their business models in this post. Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum in his book “Fourth Industrial Revolution” refers to the current era as one whereby “new technologies that are fusing the physical, digital and biological worlds, impacting all disciplines, economies and industries, and even challenging ideas about what it means to be human”.

The financial services business is one that is regularly touted as been rife for transformation with fintech being the much-hyped buzz word. I last posted here and here on fintech and insurtech, the use of technology innovations designed to squeeze out savings and efficiency from existing insurance business models.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is used as an umbrella term for everything from process automation, to robotics and to machine learning. As referred to in this post on equity markets, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) released a report called “Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Financial Services” in November 2017. In relation to insurance, the FSB report highlights that “some insurance companies are actively using machine learning to improve the pricing or marketing of insurance products by incorporating real-time, highly granular data, such as online shopping behaviour or telemetrics (sensors in connected devices, such as car odometers)”. Other areas highlighted include machine learning techniques in claims processing and the preventative benefits of remote sensors connected through the internet of things. Consultants are falling over themselves to get on the bandwagon as reports from the likes of Deloitte, EY, PwC, Capgemini, and Accenture illustrate.

One of the better recent reports on the topic is this one from the reinsurer SCOR. CEO Denis Kessler states that “information is becoming a commodity, and AI will enable us to process all of it” and that “AI and data will take us into a world of ex-ante predictability and ex-post monitoring, which will change the way risks are observed, carried, realized and settled”. Kessler believes that AI will impact the insurance sector in 3 ways:

  • Reducing information asymmetry and bringing comprehensive and dynamic observability in the insurance transaction,
  • Improving efficiencies and insurance product innovation, and
  • Creating new “intrinsic“ AI risks.

I found one article in the SCOR report by Nicolas Miailhe of the Future Society at the Harvard Kennedy School particularly interesting. Whilst talking about the overall AI market, Miailhe states that “the general consensus remains that the market is on the brink of a revolution, which will be characterized by an asymmetric global oligopoly” and the “market is qualified as oligopolistic because of the association between the scale effects and network effects which drive concentration”.  When referring to an oligopoly, Miailhe highlights two global blocks – GAFA (Google/Apple/Facebook/Amazon) and BATX (Baidu/Alibaba/Tencent/Xiaomi). In the insurance context, Miailhe states that “more often than not, this will mean that the insured must relinquish control, and at times, the ownership of data” and that “the delivery of these new services will intrude heavily on privacy”.

At a more mundane level, Miailhe highlights the difficulty for stakeholders such as auditors and regulators to understand the business models of the future which “delegate the risk-profiling process to computer systems that run software based on “black box” algorithms”. Miailhe also cautions that bias can infiltrate algorithms as “algorithms are written by people, and machine-learning algorithms adjust what they do according to people’s behaviour”.

In a statement that seems particularly relevant today in terms of the current issue around Facebook and data privacy, Miailhe warns that “the issues of auditability, certification and tension between transparency and competitive dynamics are becoming apparent and will play a key role in facilitating or hindering the dissemination of AI systems”.

Now, that’s not something you’ll hear from the usual cheer leaders.

Hi there LIBOR

According to this article in the FT by Bhanu Baweja of UBS, the rise in the spread between the dollar 3-month LIBOR, now over 2.25% compared to 1.7% at the start of the year, and the overnight indexed swap (OIS) rate, as per the graph below, is a “red herring” and that “supply is at play here, not rising credit risk”. This view reflects the current market consensus, up until recently at least.

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Baweja argues that the spread widening is due to the increased T-bill-OIS spread because of increased yields due to widening fiscal deficits in the US and to the increased commercial paper (CP) to T-bill spread due to US company repatriations as a result of the Trump tax cuts. Although Baweja lists off the current bull arguments to be cheerful, he does acknowledge that an increasing LIBOR will impact US floating borrowers of $2.2 trillion of debt, half of whom are BB- and below, particularly if 3-month US LIBOR breaks past 3%. Baweja points to rises in term premiums as the real red flags to be looking out for.

Analysts such as Matt Smith of Citi and Jonathan Garner of Morgan Stanley are not as nonchalant as the market consensus as articulated by Baweja. The potential for unintended consequences and/or imbalances in this tightening phase, out of the greatest monetary experiment every undertaken, is on many people’s minds, including mine. I cannot but help think of a pressure cooker with every US rate rise ratcheting the heat higher.

Citi worry that LIBOR may be a 3-month leading indicator for dollar strengthening which may send shock-waves across global risk markets, particularly if FX movements are disorderly. Garner believes that “we’re already looking at a significant tightening of monetary policy in the US and in addition China is tightening monetary policy at the same time and this joint tightening is a key reason why we are so cautious on markets”. Given Chairman Powell’s debut yesterday and the more hawkish tone in relation to 2019 and 2020 tightening, I’ll leave this subject on that note.

The intricacies of credit market movements are not my area of expertise, so I’ll take council on this topic from people who know better.

Eh, help Eddie….what do you think?

Ramblin’ on Gamblin’

If you exclude investing, I am not a gambler. However I do find the gambling sector fascinating. I have been posting on the sector for over four years now (see posts under Gambling Sector category). As an example of an old bricks and mortar sector that has been revolutionised in recent years by the internet and smart phones, it is illuminating. As I said in a previous post, “this sector is haunted by regulatory risk” and this post will run through some regulatory developments, as well as business ones.

Late in December last year, Ladbrokes Coral (LCL) agreed to a takeover deal by GVC, the Isle of Man consolidator who owns BWIN, Sportbet, PartyPoker and Foxy Bingo. The smaller GVC, with 2017 revenue of €0.9 billion, structured an innovative deal for the larger LCL, with 2017 revenue of approx. £2.4 billion (I will update these figures when LCL announces its final 2017 figures in the coming days), with a sliding scale valuation based upon the UK Government’s triennial review of the sector.

The UK regulator and the government’s adviser on the issue, the Gambling Commission, today released its advice on fixed-odds betting terminals (FOBTs), often described as the “crack cocaine” of gambling. The Gambling Commission recommended a limit of £2 for “slot” style games, called B2 slots, and “a stake limit at or below £30” for other non-slot B2 games, such as the popular roulette games. Although LCL and William Hill shares popped today, the final decision is a political one and its by no means certain that a limit lower than £30 will not be implemented.

Based upon the sliding scale in the LCL/GVC deal and some assumptions on retail operating cost cuts based upon different FOBT stake limits, the graphic below shows the potential impact upon the business of LCL, William Hill (WMH) and Paddy Power Betfair (PPB). Again, LCL is based upon H1 results extrapolated and will be updated for the final 2017 figures.

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Based upon very rough estimates, the limits recommended could result in around 400 to 700 betting shops disposals or closures by the bigger firms, albeit that these shops are likely to be the least attractive for rivals or smaller firms. These estimates do not take into account potential mitigating actions undertaken by the betting firms. Lost FOBT revenue could be made up by increased sports betting facilitated by the introduction of self-service betting terminals (SSBTs) which allow punters to gamble on new betting products.

Point of consumption (PoC) taxes have been introduced in countries such as the UK and Ireland in recent years and are now payable in South Australia and have been announced in Western Australia. The other states in Australia are likely to introduce PoC taxes in 2019. These developments caused WMH to take a write-down on its Australian operations and sell them in March to the Canadian poker firm the Stars Group (formally the colourful Amaya), owner of PokerStars, PokerStars Casino, BetStars, and Full Tilt. The Stars Group (TSG) also increased its ownership in the Australian operator Crownbet in March which it intends to merge with the William Hill Australian operation. PPB was reported to have been interested in Crownbet previously but was obviously beaten on price by TSG. PPB had the exhibit below in their 2017 results presentation on the non-retail Australian market.

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A more positive regulatory development in the coming months could be a favourable decision by the US Supreme Court on the future of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992 (PASPA). This whitepaper from the Massachusetts Gaming Commission gives a good insight into the legal issues under consideration and the implications for the sector in the US of different Supreme Court decisions, such as upholding PASPA or a narrow ruling or a full PASPA strike down. Other issues in the US include the terms under which individual States legislate for betting. The consultants Eilers & Krejcik opine that “a market incorporating both land-based and online sports betting products could be worth over two times a market that is restricted to land-based sports betting alone” although they conclude that “many – perhaps even most – states will choose to delay or forgo online”. It may be likely that many States will follow Nevada’s example and require online accounts to be initiated by a land-based provider with age and ID verification conducted on premises.

Sports betting in the US is generally low margin with WMH reporting US gross win margins around 6%. Other tailwinds to the US sector include rent seeking participants such as the sports bodies looking for “integrity fees”, a figure of 1% on the amount staked (called the handle in the US) have been suggested, or aggressive tax policies and levels by individual States. This paper by Michelle Minton outlines some fascinating background on PASPA and argues that any legalisation of betting across the US must be pitched at a level to counter the illegal market, estimated at $120 billion per year to be 20 times the size of the current legal sector in the US.

Philip Bowcock, the CEO of William Hill, in the 2017 results call summarised the opportunity in the US as follows:

“We do not quite know how the economics will work out because, as I said, there are three ways this could potentially go. It could either go purely retail, only taking sports bets in a retail environment. It could be the Nevada model, which is retail plus a mobile app signed up for in the retail environment. Or it could go completely remote registration, which is as we have in the UK. I do not expect every state in the US to regulate, and if they do, to go for that end model. I think each one is going to be different, and that is going to decide where we are as to what the economics are going to be.”

So, they are some of the regulatory issues challenging the sector today. In terms of historical and 2017 sportsbook margins shown below, I have spend some time revisiting my data and extracting more accurate data, particularly in relation to historical Ladbroke sportsbook net revenue margins. H2 sportsbook results, particularly Q4 results, were very favourable for the bookies. I estimate that the Q4 figures for PPB improved their full year net revenue margin on its sportsbook by 120 basis points. I debated whether to adjust the 2017 figures for the Q4 results but decided against it as the results reflect the volatility of the business and good or bad results should be left alone. It is the gambling business after all!!! As above, the LCL numbers are those extrapolated from H1 results with an uplift for the H2 favourable results and will be updated when the actual results are available.

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On the specific results from PPB, their 2017 EPS came in at £3.98, ahead of my August estimate of £3.72 for 2017 (see post here) but still behind my more optimistic March estimate of £4.14 (see post here). The lacklustre online sportsbook results are a concern (revenues up 8% compared to 14% and 25% for WMH and LCL respectively), as are the declining online gaming revenues. Increases in PoC taxes in Australia will impact operating margins in 2019 and FX will be a tailwind in 2018. Increased IT resources and investments in promoting new products and the Paddy Power brand are the focus of management in 2018, ahead of the World Cup. Discipline on M&A, as demonstrated by walking away from a CrownBet deal, are also highlighted as is potential firepower of £1.2 billion for opportunistic deals.

My new estimates for 2018 & 2019, after factoring in the items above, are £4.36 and £4.51 respectively, as below. These represent earnings multiples around 17 for PPB, not quite as rich as in the past, but justified given the 2017 results and the headwinds ahead. PPB must now show that it can deliver in 2018, a World Cup year, to maintain this diminished but still premium valuation.

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The coming months in this sector will be interesting. The fate of firms such as 888, with a market cap around £1 billion, will likely be in the mix (interesting that its fits within PPB’s budget!). WMH and 888 have tangoed in the past to no avail. Further dances are highly likely by the players in this fascinating sector.